Homo Deus - A Brief history of tomorrow
by Yuval Noah Harari
[Likewise the first book (Homo Sapiens,
this book is also a great one to read]
The first part of the book looks at the
relationship between Homo Sapiens and other animals. The second part of the
book examines the bizarre world Homo sapiens has created in the last millennia.
The third part of the book comes back to the early 21st century: our current
predicament and possible futures.
Famine, epidemics and war
For thousands of years, famine, plague
and war were always at the top of list of problems. Many thinkers and prophets
concluded that famine, plague and war must be an integral part of God’s cosmic
plan or of our imperfect nature and nothing short of the end of time would free
us from them.
Yet at the dawn of the 3rd millennium,
humanity wakes up to an amazing realization. Most people rarely think about
these three issues as we managed to rein in famine, plague and war. We
know quite well that needs to be done in order to prevent famine, plague and
war. In the 21st century, the average human is far more likely to die from
binging at McDonald’s than from drought, Ebola or an al-Qaeda attack.
Until recently most human lived on the
very edge of the biological poverty line, below which people succumb to
malnutrition and hunger. Provisions were scarce; transport were too slow and
expensive to import sufficient food; and the government were far too weak to
save the day.
During the last 100 years,
technological, economic and political development have created an increasingly
robust safety net separating humankind from the biological poverty line. There
are no longer natural famines in the world; there are only political famines.
In the 18th century Marie Antoinette
allegedly advised the starving masses that if they ran out of bread, they
should just eat cake instead. Today, poor people are following this advice to
the letter. Whereas the rich people eat lettuce salad and steamed tofu with
quinoa, and in the slums and ghettos, the poor gorge on Twinkle cakes, Cheetos,
hamburgers and pizza. In 2010 famine and malnutrition combined killed about 1
million people, whereas obesity killed 3 million.
After famine, humanity’s second great
enemy was plagues and infectious diseases. The most infamous outbreak (aka
black death) began in 1330s, somewhere in east or central Asia. Between 75
million and 200 million people died - more than than a quarter of the
population of Eurasia. The Black Death was not a singular event. More
disastrous epidemics struck America, Australia and the Pacific Islands
following the arrival of the first Europeans - they brought with them new
infectious diseases against which the natives had no immunity. Up to 90% of the
local population died as a result.
Both the incidence and impact of
epidemics have gone down dramatically in the last few decades. In 2015 doctors
announced the discovery of a completely new type of medicine of antibiotic --
teixobactin - to which bacteria have no resistance as yet.
For the first time in the history, when
governments, corporations, and private individuals consider their immediate
future, many of them don’t think about war as a likely event.
Homo Deus
Success breeds ambition and our current
achievements are now pushing humankind to set itself even more daring goals.
Humanity's next targets are likely to be immortality, happiness and divinity.
And having raised humanity above the beauty levels of survival struggles, we
will now aim to upgrade humans into gods and turn the Homo Sapiens into Homo
Deus.
Throughout history, religions and
ideologies did not sanctify life itself. Christianity, Islam and Hinduism
insisted that the meaning of our existence depended on our fate in the
afterlife. They viewed death as vital and positive part of the world. Human
died because God decreed it.
Even ordinary people who are not
engaged in scientific research, have become used to thinking about death as a
technical problem. For a technical problem, there should be a technical
solution. Google Ventures is investing 36% of their $2bn portfolio in life
science startups, including several ambitious life extending in the fight
against death. Like them, there are many more VCs investing in a-mortality
mission. Some experts believe that humans will overcome death by 2200, others
say 2100. They maintain that anyone possessing a healthy body and a healthy
bank account in 2050 will have a serious shot at immortality by cheating the
death a death at a time.
Modern medicine hasn’t extended our
natural life span by a single year, but it could save us from premature death
and allowed us to enjoy the full measure of our years.
Happiness
The second big project on the human
agenda will probably be to find the key to happiness. In ancient Greece, the
philosopher Epicurus explained that worshiping God is a waste of life that
there is no existence after death. Happiness is the sole purpose of life. Most
people reject such idea in those days, but it has become the default view.
Industrialized nations as Germany,
France, and Japan established gigantic systems of education, health and
welfare, yet these systems were aimed to strengthen the nation rather than
ensure individual well-being. Even the welfare system was originally planned in
the internet of the nation rather than of needy individuals. When Otto von Bismarck
pioneered state pensions and social security in the late 19th century Germany,
his chief aim was to ensure the loyalty of the citizen rather than to increase
their well-being.
Material achievements alone will not
satisfy us for long. Epicurus recommended to eat & drink in moderation and
also to curb sexual appetites. In the long run, a deep friendship will make us
more content than a frenzied orgy.
Achieving real happiness is not going
to be much easier than overcoming old age and death. The glass ceiling of
happiness is held in place by two stout pillars, one-psychological, the other
biological. On the psychological level happiness depends on expectations rather
than objective conditions. On the biological level, both our expectations and
our happiness are determined by our biochemistry, rather than our economic,
social or political situations.
According to Epicurus, we are happy
when we feel pleasant sensations and are free from unpleasant ones. A
thousand things can make us angry, but anger is never an abstraction. It is
always felt as sensation of heat and tension in the body, which is what makes
anger so infuriating.
The biochemical pursuit of happiness is
the number one cause of crime in the world (alcohol, drugs etc. ). People drink
alcohol to forget, they smoke pot to feel peaceful, they take cocaine and meth.
To be sharp and confident, whereas Ecstasy provides ecstatic sensations and LSD
sends you to meet Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds.
The Buddhist view of happiness has a
lot in common with the biochemical view. Both agree that pleasant sensations
disappear as fast they arise. And that as long as people crave pleasant
sensations without actually experiencing them, they remain dissatisfied. The
Buddhist suggestions was to reduce our carving for plesant sensations and not
allow them to control our lives.
The upgrading of humans into gods may
follow any of three paths:
- Biological engineering,
- cyborg engineering,
- Engineering of non-organic beings.
Biological engineering starts with the
insight that we are far from realizing the full potentials of organic bodies.
Bioengineering is not going to wait patiently for natural selection to work its
magic. Instead, bioengineers will take the old Homo sapiens body and
intentionally rewrite its genetic code, rewire its brain circuits, alter its
biochemical balance and even grow entirely new limbs.
Cyborg engineering will go a step
further, merging the organic body with non-organic devices such as bionic hands,
artificial eyes, or millions of non-robots that will navigate our bloodstream,
diagnose our problems and repair damage.
A bolder approach dispenses with
organic parts together and hopes to engineer completely non-organic beings.
Neural networks will be replaced by intelligent software, which could surf both
virtual and non-virtual worlds, free from the limitations of organic chemistry.
Breaking out of the organic realm could also enable life to finally break out
of planet earth. Not even the toughest bacteria can survive on Mars. A
non-organic artificial intelligence, in contrast, will find it far easier to
colonize alien planets. The replacement of organic life by inorganic beings may
therefore sow the seed of a future galactic empire, ruled by data.
For thousands of years history was full
of technological economic, social and political upheavals, yet one remained
constant: humanity itself. However, once technology enables us to re-engineer
human minds, Homo sapiens will disappear, human history will come to an end and
completely new kind of process will begin, which people like me and you cannot
comprehend.
In the 21st century, the 3rd big
project of humankind will be to acquire for us divine powers of creation and
destruction and upgrade Homo sapiens into Homo Deus. This third project
obviously consumes the first two projects and is filled by them. We want the
ability to re-engineer our bodies and minds in order to escape the old age,
death and misery, but once we have it, we may well think of the new human
agenda as consistently really of only one project: attaining divinity.
History is often shaped by exaggerated
hopes. Our future economy, society and politics will be shaped by the attempt
to overcome death. It does not follow that inn 2100 humans will be immortal.
Knowledge that does not changes behaviorist useless. But knowledge that changes
behavior quickly loses its relevance. The more data we have and the better we
understand history; the faster history alters its course and the faster our
knowledge becomes outdated.
Looking back, many thinks that the
downfall of the pharaohs and the death of God were both positive developments.
May be the collapse of humanism will also be beneficial. People are usually
afraid of change because they fear they unknown. But the single greatest
constant of history is that everything changes.
With regard to other animals, humans
have long since become gods. The Homo sapiens has rewritten the rules of the
game. Homo sapiens decide the fate of the other animals: there are 200K
wild wolves still roam the earth, but there are more than 400 million
domesticated dogs. The world contains 40K lions compared to 600 million house
cats; 900K African buffalo versus 1.5 billion domesticated cows...
Pie-chart of global biomass of large
animals prove that point:
Wild animals - 100 million tons
Humans - 300 million tons
Domesticated animals - 700 million tons
Who is afraid of Charles Darwin?
Why does the theory of evolution
provoke such objections whereas nobody seems to are about the theory of
relativity or quantum mechanics? If you really understand the theory of
evolution, you understand that there is no soul. This is terrifying thought not
only to the devout Christians and Muslims, but also to many secular people who
don’t hold any religious dogma, but nevertheless want to believe that each
human possesses an eternal individual essence that remains unchanged through
life and can survive even death intact.
Evolution means change, and is
incapable of producing everlasting entities. From an evolutionary perspective,
the closest thing we have to a human essence is our DNA and the DNA molecule is
the vehicle of mutation rather than the seat of eternity. This terrifies large
numbers of people, who prefer to reject the theory of evolution rather than
give up their souls.
Science knows very little about mind
and consciousness. Current orthodoxy holds that consciousness is created by
electromechanical reaction in the brain and the mental experience fulfills some
essential data-processing function.
Value of Corporations
History provides ample evidence for the
crucial importance of large scale cooperation. Victory almost invariably went
to those who cooperated better. In order to mount a revolution, numbers are
never enough. Revolution are usually made by small networks of agitators rather
than by masses.
In the 19th century, several EU powers
had claim to African territories. Fearing that conflicting claims might lead to
an all out EU war, the concerned parties got together in Berlin in 1884 and
divided Africa as it were a pie. They knew little about the courses the African
rivers took inland, about the kingdoms and tribes that lived along their banks
and about the local religion, history and geography. This hardly mattered to EU
diplomats. They unrolled a half-empty map of Africa and divided the countries
among them.
As bureaucrats accumulate power, they
become immune to their own mistakes. Instead of changing their stories to fit
the reality, they can change realities to fit their stories. In the end
external reality matches their bureaucratic fantasies, but only because they
forced reality to do so.
The borders of many African countries
disregard river lines, mountain ranges and trade routes, split historical and
economic zones unnecessary and ignores local ethnic and religious identifies.
The same tribe may find itself riven among several countries, whereas one
country may incorporate splinters of numerous rival clans. When EU powers left
the African region, the new countries accepted the colonial borders, fearing
that the alternative would be endless war and conflicts. Many of the
difficulties faced by present day African countries stem from the fact that
their borders make little sense.
Traditional & Modern Jews
Scientist pointed out that biblical
Judaism was not a scripture-based religion at all. Rather it was a typical Iron
Age cult, similar to many of its Middle Eastern neighbors. It had no
synagogues, yeshivas rabbis or even a bible. Instead it had elaborated temple
rituals, most of which involve sacrificing animals to a jealous sky god so that
he would bless his people.
During the Second Temple period a rival
religious elite gradually formed. Due to partly to Persian and Greek
influences, Jewish scholars who write and interpret tests gained increasing
prominence. These scholars eventually came to be known as rabbits and the test
text they compiled were christened s ‘the Bible’. The clash between the new
elite and the old priestly families was inevitable. Fortunately for the rabbis,
the Roman torched Jerusalem and its temple in 7-AD while suppressing the Great
Jewish Revolt. With the temple in ruins, the priestly families lost their
religious authority, their economic power base and their very raison d’etre.
Traditional Judaism disappeared.
Science & Religion
In 1600, cities like Cairo, Istanbul
you would find there a multicultural and tolerant metropolis where different
religion coexisted without much conflict., Ottoman empire routinely
discriminated against people on religious grounds. It was liberal paradise
compared to Christian Europe. Yes, Scientific Revolution began in London
and Paris rather than in Cairo and Istanbul. It is customary to portray the
history of modernity as a struggle between science and religion. In theory,
both science and religion are interested above all in the truth and because
each upholds a different truth, they are doomed to clash. In fact, neither
science nor religion cares that much about the truth, hence they can easily
compromise, coexist and even cooperate.
In medieval Europe, the chief formula
for
knowledge was Knowledge= Scriptures X
Logic
In Scientific Revolution, Knowledge =
Empirical data x Mathematics
In humanism Knowledge = Experience x
Sensitivity
Why did Marx and Lenin succeed where
Hong and the Mahdi failed? Not because socialist humanism was philosophically
more sophisticated than Islamic and Christian theology, but rather because Marx
& Lenin devoted more attention to understanding the technological and
economic realities of their time than to scrutinizing ancient texts and
prophetic dreams. The discoveries and inventions created unheard of problems as
well as unprecedented opportunities. The experience needs and hopes of the new
class of urban proletariats were simply too different from those of biblical
peasant. To answer these needs and hope, Marx and Lenin studied how a
steam engine works and other such inventions and how it influences the
politics.
Since Marx & Lenin understand the
realities of the new inventions, they had relevant answers to the new problems
of industrial societies as well as original ideas about how to benefit from the
unprecedented opportunities. In the 19th century few people were as perceptive
as Marx and hence only a few countries underwent rapid industrialization. These
countries conquered the world. Most societies failed to understand what was
happening and therefore missed the train of progress. Countries like India
remained for more preoccupied with God than with steam engines, hence they were
occupied and exploited by industrial Britain.
In the 21st century, socialism, which
was very up to date a hundred years ago failed to keep up with new technology.
Russians and Cubans held on ideas that Marx and Lenin formulated in the age of
steam and did nit understand the power of computers and biotechnology. Liberals
adapted far better to the information age. This is why USSR failed and the
liberal capitalists who eventually buried the Marxist.
Radical Islam is in a far worse
position than socialism. It has not yet come to terms even with the industrial
revolution - no wonder it has little relevance to say about genetic engineering
and AI.
In addition to social and ethical
reforms, Christianity was responsible for important economic and technological
innovations. The Catholic Church established medieval EU’s most sophisticated
administrative systems and pioneered the use of archives, catalogues,
timetables, and other technique of data processing.
Useless Class
Liberals uphold free markets and
democratic elections because they believe that every human is a uniquely
valuable individual, whose free choices are the ultimate source of authority.
In the 21st century, three practical developments might make this believe
obsolete:
- Humans will lose their economic and military usefulness, hence the economic and political system will stop attaching much value to them
- The system will continue to find value in human collectively but not in unique individuals
- The system will still find value in some unique individuals, but these will constitute a new elite of upgraded superhuman rather than mass of the population.
The idea that humans will always have a
unique ability beyond the reach of non-conscious algorithms is just wishful
thinking. The current scientific answer to this pipe-dream can be summarized in
three simple principles:
- Organisms are algorithms. Every animal is an assemblage of organic, algorithmic shaped by natural selection over millions of years of evolution
- Algorithmic calculations are not affected y the materials form which the calculator is built. Whether an abacus is made of wood, iron, or plastic, two beads plus two beads equals four beads.
- Hence there is no reason to think that organic algorithms can do things that non-organic algorithms will never be able to replicate or surprise. As long as the calculations remain valid, what does it matter whether the algorithms are manifested in carbon or silicon?
When the algorithm developed by Frey
and Osborne to do the calculations estimated that 47% of US jobs are at high
risk. For example, there is a 99% probability that by 2033 human telemarketers
and insurance underwriters will lose their jobs to AI (algorithms). There is a 98%
probability that the same will happen to sports referees, 97 % that will happen
to cashiers and 96% to chefs. Waiters -94%, Paralegal assistants - 94%, Tour
guides - 91%, Bakers - 89%, Bus drivers - 89%, Construction laborers - 88%,
Veterinary assistants - 86%, Security guards - 84%, Sailors - 83%, Bartenders -
77%, Archivists - 76%, Carpenters - 72%, Lifeguards - 67%, and so forth.
The data religion
Dataism declares that the universe
consists of data flow, and the value of any phenomenon or entity is determined
by its contribution to data processing.
If we take the really grand view of
life, all other problems and developments are overshadowed by three interlinked
processes.
- Science is converging on an all-encompassing dogma, which says that organisms are algorithms and life is data processing
- Intelligence is decoupling from consciousness
- Non-conscious but highly intelligent algorithms may soon know us better than we know ourselves.
These three processes raise three key
questions, which I hope will stick in your mind long after you have finished
this book
- Are organisms really just algorithms and is life really just data processing?
- What is more valuable - intelligence or consciousness?
- What will happen to society, politics and daily life when unconscious but highly intelligent algorithms know us better than we know ourselves?
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