February 14, 2021

Principles by Ray Dalio

 Principles by Ray Dalio


1) WHAT ARE PRINCIPLES?

Your values are what you consider important, literally what you value. Principles are what allow you to live a life consistent with those values. Principles connect your values to your actions; they are beacons that guide your actions and help you successfully deal with the laws of reality. It is to your principles that you turn when you face hard choices.



2) WHY ARE PRINCIPLES IMPORTANT?

All successful people operate by principles that help them be successful. Without principles, you would be forced to react to circumstances that come at you without considering what you value most and how to make choices to get what you want.


3) WHERE DO PRINCIPLES COME FROM?

Sometimes we forge our own principles and sometimes we accept others’ principles, or holistic packages of principles, such as religion and legal systems. 


4) DO YOU HAVE PRINCIPLES THAT YOU LIVE YOUR LIFE BY? WHAT ARE THEY?

Your principles will determine your standards of behavior. When you enter into relationships with other people, your and their principles will determine how you interact.


Through this time and till now I followed the same basic approach I used as a 12-year-old caddie trying to beat the market, i.e., by 1) working for what I wanted, not for what others wanted me to do; 2) coming up with the best independent opinions I could muster to move toward my goals; 3) stress- testing my opinions by having the smartest people I could find challenge them so I could find out where I was wrong; 4) being wary about overconfidence, and good at not knowing; and 5) wrestling with reality, experiencing the results of my decisions, and reflecting on what I did to produce them so that I could improve.


This brings me to my most fundamental principle:

Truth  —more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality— is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes.


It is only natural that seeking something new, or seeking new depths of something old, is required to bring us satisfaction.

In other words, the sequence of

1) seeking new things (goals);

2) working and learning in the process of pursuing these goals;

3) obtaining these goals, and

4) then doing this over and over again is the personal evolutionary process that fulfills most of us and moves society forward.



The most important quality that differentiates successful people from unsuccessful people is our capacity to learn and adapt to these things.


  1. It is a fundamental law of nature that to evolve one has to push one’s limits, which is painful, in order to gain strength—whether it’s in the form of lifting weights, facing problems head-on, or in any other way


Most people react to pain badly. They have fight or flight reactions to it: they either strike out at whatever brought them the pain or they try to run away from it. As a result, they don’t learn to find ways around their barriers, so they encounter them over and over again and make little or no progress toward what they want


Most learning comes from making mistakes, reflecting on the causes of the mistakes, and learning what to do differently in the future.


Pain + Reflection = Progress


people who know that understanding what is real is the first step toward optimally dealing with it make better decisions.


People who overweigh the first-order consequences of their decisions and ignore the effects that the second-and subsequent-order consequences will have on their goals rarely reach their goals

Successful people understand that bad things come at everyone and that it is their responsibility to make their lives what they want them to be by successfully dealing with whatever challenges they face


That schematic is meant to convey that your goals will determine the machine that you create to achieve them; Your machine will consist of the design and people you choose to achieve the goals.


MY 5-STEP PROCESS TO GETTING WHAT YOU[40]  WANT OUT OF LIFE


  1. Have clear goals.

  2. Identify and don’t tolerate the problems that stand in the way of achieving your goals.

  3. Accurately diagnose these problems.

  4. Design plans that explicitly lay out tasks that will get you around your problems and on to your goals.

  5. Implement these plans—i.e., do these tasks.


  • You must approach these as distinct steps rather than blur them together.

  • Each of these five steps requires different talents and disciplines

  • It is essential to approach this process in a very clear-headed, rational way rather than emotionally.



By and large, life will give you what you deserve and it doesn’t give a damn what you like. So it is up to you to take full responsibility to connect what you want with what you need to do to get it, and then to do those things—which often are difficult but produce good results—so that you’ll then deserve to get what you want.


  1. Setting Goals

  • You can have virtually anything you want, but you can’t have everything you want.
  • Avoid setting goals based on what you think you can achieve.
  • Achieving your goals isn’t just about moving forward.

2. IDENTIFYING AND NOT TOLERATING PROBLEMS


Most problems are potential improvements screaming at you. In order to be successful, you have to

1) perceive problems and

2) not tolerate them.


Remember that identifying problems is like finding gems embedded in puzzles; if you solve the puzzles you will get the gems that will make your life much better.

  • Be very precise in specifying your problems.
  • Don’t confuse problems with causes.


3) DIAGNOSING THE PROBLEMS

  • You will be much more effective if you focus on diagnosis and design rather than jumping to solutions.
  • You must be calm and logical.
  • You must get at the root causes.
  • Recognizing and learning from one’s mistakes and the mistakes of others who affect outcomes is critical to eliminating problems.
  • Pain + Reflection = Progress

So to be successful, you must be willing to look at your own behavior and the behavior of others as possible causes of problems.


The most important qualities for successfully diagnosing problems are logic, the ability to see multiple possibilities, and the willingness to touch people’s nerves to overcome the ego barriers that stand in the way of truth.


4) DESIGNING THE PLAN (DETERMINING THE SOLUTIONS)


Creating a design is like writing a movie script in that you visualize who will do what through time in order to achieve the goal. The design will give you your to-do list (i.e., the tasks).


5) DOING THE TASKS

They tend to be self-disciplined and proactive rather than reactive to the blizzard of daily tasks that can divert them from execution. They are results-oriented: they love to push themselves over the finish line to achieve the goal.



Values → 1) Goals → 2) Problems → 3) Diagnoses → 4) Designs → 5) Tasks


As you design and implement your plan to achieve your goals, you may find it helpful to consider that:

Life is like a game where you seek to overcome the obstacles that stand in the way of achieving your goals;

You get better at this game through practice;

The game consists of a series of choices


The game consists of a series of choices that have consequences:

  • You can’t stop the problems and choices from coming at you, so it’s better to learn how to deal 
with them;
  • You have the freedom to make whatever choices you want, though it’s best to be mindful of their consequences;
  • The pain of problems is a call to find solutions rather than a reason for unhappiness and inaction, so it’s silly, pointless, and harmful to be upset at the problems and choices that come at you (though it’s understandable);
  • We all evolve at different paces, and it’s up to you to decide the pace at which you want to evolve;
  • The process goes better if you are as accurate as possible in all respects, including assessing your strengths and weaknesses and adapting to them.



February 7, 2021

The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google by Scott Galloway

 The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google by Scott Galloway


OVER THE LAST TWENTY YEARS, four technology giants (Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Google ) have inspired more joy, connections, prosperity, and discovery than any entity in history. The Four have generated unprecedented wealth ($2.3 trillion) that, via stock ownership


Amazon

Fundamental to business is the notion that in a capitalist society the consumer reigns supreme, and consumption is the noblest of activities. Consumption has taken the place of shared sacrifice during times of war and economic malaise. The nation needs you to keep buying more stuff.


Few industries have created more wealth by tapping into our consuming selves than retail. Of the four hundred wealthiest people in the world (excluding those who inherited wealth or are in finance) more names on the list are in retail than even technology.


The difference this time is that this value has been created with unprecedented speed by a single company, because, being virtual, Amazon can scale to hundreds of millions of customers, and scale across almost every retail industry, without the traditional drag of having to build brick-and-mortar stores and hire thousands of employees. On Amazon, Bezos realized, every page can be a store and every customer a salesperson. And the company could grow so fast that there wouldn’t be any corners left for competitors to carve out a niche.


Brands are two things: promise and performance. 

Amazon has had more access to cheaper capital for a longer period than any firm in modern times. Most successful VC-backed tech companies in the nineties raised less than $50 million before showing a return to investors. By comparison, Amazon raised $2.1 billion in investors’ money before the company (sort of) broke even. 


Through storytelling, outlining a huge vision, Amazon has reshaped the relationship between company and shareholder. The story is compelling and simple—the power couple of messaging.

  • The Story: Earth’s Biggest Store.

  • The Strategy: Huge investments in consumer benefits that stand the test of time—lower cost, greater selection, and faster delivery.


Most retailers trade at a multiple of profits times eight.46 By comparison, Amazon trades at a multiple of forty. In addition, Amazon has trained the Street to hold them to a different standard—to expect higher growth but lower profits. That enables the company to take the (substantial) incremental gross margin dollars it earns each year and plow more capital back into the business—and avoid that whole tax thing. And that in turn funds the digging of deeper and deeper moats around the business.


Normal business thinking: If we can borrow money at historically low rates, buy back stock, and see the value of management’s options increase, why invest in growth and the jobs that come with it? That’s risky.

Amazon business thinking: If we can borrow money at historically low rates, why don’t we invest that money in extraordinarily expensive control delivery systems? That way we secure an impregnable position in retail and asphyxiate our competitors. Then we can get really big, fast.


Most uber-wealthy people have one thing in common: failure. They’ve experienced it, usually in spades, as the path to wealth is fraught with risks, and often those risks end up being . . . well, risky. A society that encourages you to get up after being beaned in the head, dust off your pants, step back into the batter’s box, and swing harder the next time is the secret sauce for printing billionaires. The correlation is clear. America has the most lenient bankruptcy laws, attracts risk-takers, and, as you might guess, has most of them


These days, it’s easy to forget that Amazon did not turn its first profit until Q4 2001, seven years after its founding,59 and has dipped in and out of profitability ever since. Between drones, 757/767s, tractor-trailers, trans-Pacific shipping, and retired military generals (no joke) who oversaw the world’s most complex logistics operations (try supplying submarines and aircraft carriers that don’t surface or dock more than once every six months), Amazon is building the most robust logistics infrastructure in history. 


There is a rebel force of innovative retailers out there who are fighting the empire: Sephora, Home Depot, and Best Buy, to name a few. These firms are zigging as Amazon zags and investing in people—beauty associates, blue shirts, geek squads, and gold canvas aprons. They couple this investment in human capital with a deft investment in technology. Consumers no longer go to stores for products, which are easier to get from Amazon. They go to stores for people/experts.



Apple


Apple:

Malcolm Gladwell, the Jesus of business books, highlights the parable of David and Goliath to make the key point: don’t fight on other people’s terms. In other words, once you’ve made the jump to light speed as a tech firm, you need to immunize yourself from the same conquering weapons your army levied on the befuddled prey.


The middle class used to be 61 percent of Americans. Now they are the minority, representing less than half the population . . . the rest being lower or upper income


Facebook

Relationships make us happier. The legendary Grant Study at Harvard Medical School has borne this out. The study found that the depth and meaningfulness of a person’s relationships is the strongest indicator of level of happiness



Churchill said that WWII was won with British brains, American brawn, and Russian blood.


The New York Times, for example, gets about 15 percent of its online traffic from Facebook.29 The Times agreed to let Facebook post its articles natively on the platform. That means you can read the whole article without leaving Facebook and stepping onto the Times’ site. The quid pro quo was that the Times gets to keep the ad revenues. 

Google has become the nerve center of our shared prosthetic brain. If Google represents the brain, Amazon is a link between the brain and our acquisitive fingers—our hunter-gatherer instinct to acquire more stuff. Facebook, by contrast, appeals to our hearts. 


AT SOME POINT, there will be a Fifth Horseman, a company that combines a market valuation of one trillion dollars with sufficient market dominance to define its corner of the world. Or more likely, one of the Four will be replaced. Can we identify companies more likely to join this elite group?


Among the Four, these eight factors are prevalent: product differentiation, visionary capital, global reach, likability, vertical integration, AI, accelerant, and geography. These factors provide an algorithm, rules for what it takes to become a trillion-dollar company. In our work at L2, we use the term T Algorithm to help firms better allocate capital.

Here are the eight factors:


1. Product Differentiation

2. Visionary Capital

3. Global Reach

4. Likability

5. Vertical Integration

6. AI

7. Accelerant

8. Geography


Personal Success Factors


On average, smart people who work hard and treat people well do better than people whose thinking is muddled, who are lazy, or who are unpleasant to colleagues. That has always been and will always be true—even if the occasional jerk proves the exception. However, talent and hard work only get you in the top billion on the planet. There are other, more subtle centrifuges and separators that create the cream of the digital age.


  • Certification - Seek certification

  • The Accomplishment Habit 

Winners, first and foremost, have to be competitors. You cannot win without stepping on the field, and it’s only by taking that risk (you may get beaned in the face), exposing yourself to failure, that real accomplishment is achieved. Competing requires bravery and action-orientation.

  • Get to a City

More than 80 percent of the world’s GDP is generated in cities, and 72 percent of cities outperform their own countries in growth. Every year, a greater percentage of GDP moves to cities, and it will continue to do so. Thirty-six of the hundred largest economies in the world are U.S. metropolitan areas, and in 2012, 92 percent of jobs created and 89 percent of GDP growth came from those same cities.

  • Pimp Your Career

You need a medium to spread your awesomeness, as the path to under-compensation is doing good work that never gets explicitly pimped or attached to you. Yes, it’s unseemly, and your work and achievements should speak for themselves.


  • Boom(er)

  • Equity and the Plan

Nobody becomes super-wealthy through paychecks—it takes equity in growing assets to create real wealth. 


  • Serial Monogamy

The strategy is serial monogamy. Find a good employer where you can learn new skills, garner senior-level sponsorship (somebody who will fight for you), get equity/forced savings, and fully dedicate yourself to that company for three to five years. 


  • Stay Loyal to People, Not Organizations

Be loyal to people. People transcend corporations, and people, unlike corporations, value loyalty. Good leaders know they are only as good as the team standing behind them—and once they have forged a bond of trust with someone, will do whatever it takes to keep that person happy and on their team.


  • Manage Your Career

  • Seeking Justice

  • Regression to the Mean

  • Go Where Your Skill Is Valued

  • Sexy Job vs. ROI

  • Strength

  • Ask for and Give Help

  • What Part of the Alphabet Are You?